Platts Survey: October OPEC Oil Output Dropped to 32.26 Mil. Barrels Per Day
November 09 2008 - 6:30PM
PR Newswire (US)
LONDON, Nov. 9 /PRNewswire/ -- Platts -- The 13 members of the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pumped an
average 32.26 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil in
October, according to a Platts survey of OPEC and oil industry
officials just released. This is a 210,000 b/d decline from the
September level of 32.47 million b/d. Excluding Iraq, production
from the 12 members hitherto bound by output agreements fell by
220,000 b/d, to 29.96 million b/d from 30.18 million b/d, the
survey showed. When Indonesia, which will leave OPEC at year end is
also excluded, the survey shows a 210,000 b/d drop in production
from the so-called OPEC-11, to 29.11 million b/d in October from
the previous month's 29.32 million b/d. OPEC's new output target as
of November 1, which excludes both Indonesia and Iraq, is 27.308
million b/d, following the group's October 24 decision to cut
official production allocations by 1.5 million b/d in hopes of
preventing a big supply overhang from building. "Even if OPEC cuts
1.5 million b/d from current levels, it still puts the
organization's output above what the International Energy Agency
says the market needs for supply and demand to remain balanced in
the first half of 2009," said Platts Global Director of Oil John
Kingston. "The IEA most recently has estimated that OPEC needs to
produce 30.6 million b/d in the first quarter to balance demand,
and 30 million b/d in the second quarter. A 1.5 cut from the most
recent Platts' survey estimate would bring the organization close
to that number in the first quarter, but still put it over in the
second." A cut of 1.8 million b/d is likely required, he says.
There is still question as to how much Saudi Arabia, OPEC's biggest
producer, intends to cut. Having increased output unilaterally over
several months since the spring, citing increased customer demand
rather than an effort to stem the oil price climb that eventually
peaked in early July above $147/barrel, the kingdom has been
reducing production over the past three months, albeit not to the
level of its 8.943 million b/d allocation. It reduced volumes by
100,000 b/d in October to 9.4 million b/d. If Saudi Arabia is to
meet its new 8.477 million b/d allocation as of November 1, it will
need to slash production by more than 900,000 b/d. One industry
participant in the survey suggested that Saudi Arabia, rather than
make a deep cut, was aiming to reduce supply to particular
customers that might more readily accept reduced volumes than
others. UAE output fell by 80,000 b/d to 2.55 million b/d, largely
the result of maintenance that will stretch through November.
Iranian output also fell by 80,000 b/d, to 3.9 million b/d. Other
smaller drops came from Algeria, Kuwait, Qatar, Venezuela and
Indonesia. Angolan output recovered to 1.87 million b/d as
production restarted from BP's Greater Plutonio development.
Production was shut down in August after a fault was discovered in
the gas plant of the field's floating production and storage
vessel. Libya's oil production rose to 1.74 million b/d following
the completion of planned field maintenance at the Total-operated
al-Jurf field. Iraqi oil ministry figures not publicly available
put wellhead output at 2.4 million b/d in October. With exports at
1.694 million b/d and internal consumption at 546,000 b/d, this
leaves a considerable volume of "unaccounted for" oil. The overall
figure obtained from the survey is closer to 2.3 million b/d. For
more information on OPEC, go to the "Platts Guide to OPEC" at
http://www.opec.platts.com/. For production numbers by country, a
table is available at
http://www.platts.com/Oil/Resources/News%20Features/opec/prod_table.xml.
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