BOSTON, April 24, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Many players
are now competing to create a large-scale, fault-tolerant,
gate-based quantum computer. In IDTechEx's latest report,
"Quantum Computing Market 2024-2044: Technology, Trends, Players,
Forecasts", it is predicted that this market will grow with a CAGR
of at least 30% and is on track to become a multi-billion dollar
industry. But how will it get there? This article overviews how
this industry is planning to scale up hardware systems and truly
start competing with existing supercomputers.
Breaking the 1000 qubit barrier
Building a quantum computer is hard. Building a large-scale,
fault-tolerant, gate-based machine to solve a range of complex
commercial problems is even harder. 2023 was an exciting year for
quantum computing enthusiasts. Both IBM and Atom Computing
announced breaking through the 1000 qubit barrier, a
significant milestone on the road to large-scale hardware
realization. Moreover, public announcements of contract securements
and even delivery of on-premises hardware continued – with examples
across almost all major qubit modalities.
Yet, for many, evidence is also mounting that the hype
surrounding quantum computing may be past its peak. The number of
start-ups emerging appears to have plateaued, and globally, VC
reticence is reported to be rising. Despite the growing list of
US$100M round closures in quantum -
Photonic Inc, Oxford Quantum Circuits, and Quantinuum, to name just
a few – overall, far more capital is flowing the way of artificial
intelligence (AI) and biotech. Worse still – the 'quantum talent
crisis' is intensifying, with many players struggling to recruit
the physicists, quantum engineers, chip designers, and computer
scientists they need to grow. Meanwhile, quantum annealing leaders
D-Wave are already ramping up their product scale capabilities with
logistics-focused customers, which could also draw end-user
attention away from the gate-based community in the near term.
So, as pressure mounts on the gate-based quantum computing
market to utilize its capital and demonstrate that it is on track
toward commercial value creation, what are the crucial next steps
for hardware developers?
The logical qubit era
Awareness of the importance of reducing errors in quantum
computers has grown significantly. Individual physical qubits
are notoriously vulnerable to decoherence from a variety of noise
sources – from temperature and electromagnetic radiation to
crosstalk. Decoherence is catastrophic for quantum advantage,
seeing qubits no longer simultaneously represent 1s and 0s
but quite classically 1s or 0s.
One method of overcoming the impact of noise
and decoherence is quantum error correction (QEC). In simple
terms, this requires creating abstracted, error-free, logical
qubits from a collection of noisy physical qubits. In
oversimplified terms, by comparing the properties of the group,
enough information about the noise can be extracted to correct it.
It is analogous to playing a game of broken telephone enough times
to decode the original message. The exact mathematical approaches
to large-scale error correction remain a highly active area of
research – particularly by the likes of experts at Riverlane. Yet
the conclusion is clear: the number of logical qubits per system is
becoming a more important benchmark for quantum computer hardware's
long-term potential for success.
Strikingly, it is apparent that the required ratio of physical
to logical qubit varies dramatically between qubit modalities.
Evidence suggests that for photonic, it could be as low as 2:1, for
neutral atom and trapped ion nearer 10:1 – while superconducting
could require more than 1000:1. To some extent, this has
temporarily leveled the playing field in the quantum computing
market, seeing challengers such as QuEra catch up, if not overtake,
giants like IBM and Google in the race for high numbers of logical
qubits.
Overall, the need to now transition into a 'logical era' is
clear. This is well evidenced by the focus on this benchmark in the
latest roadmaps by multiple players across the industry. Yet,
unfortunately, solely optimizing system design towards reducing
errors will not be enough to secure long-term success. For this,
the impact on overall size and power consumption must also be
considered.
Reduced Infrastructure burden
Overcoming the infrastructure limitations associated with
scaling quantum computer hardware is no easy task. Almost all
systems today require cooling, whether it be using cryostats or
lasers. It is often the cooling system that can be the most
demanding on space. However, as efforts to increase
logical qubit number increase – space per cooling system to
house them is running out.
As a result, today, many hardware roadmaps show a modular
approach with multiple systems connected. On the one hand, quantum
computing is designed for high-value problems – to be solved over
the cloud, and so requiring a large footprint within a data center
is not necessarily a huge barrier to adoption. However, in some
instances, the associated power demand for this approach for an
LSFT machine is calculated to be in the Mega Watts, which is enough
to warrant its own small modular reactor. To truly follow the trend
of classical computing from vacuum tube to smart phone, it's time
to start making components smaller before capabilities can get
bigger.
One key aspect impacting infrastructure demand is qubit
density or the physical size of qubits. Some modalities claim to
have a significant advantage in this area over others. For example,
it is currently estimated that superconducting and photonic designs
could integrate thousands of qubits per chip, trapped-ion tens of
thousands, and silicon-spin billions. This is partly limited by the
dimensions of the quantum state utilized, as well as the
manufacturing methods available to produce them. The size advantage
offered by silicon-spin is largely a result of leveraging the
highly optimized techniques already adopted by the semiconductor
industry for transistor and CMOS manufacture. Notably, Microsoft is
also working towards hardware protected Majorana qubits, microns in
scale, specifically stating the advantage of enabling a 'single
module machine of practical size'. That being said, given the
impact of crosstalk and other noise sources, how the impact of
spacing between qubits required will change at scale across all
modalities remains uncertain.
Furthermore, it cannot be overlooked that as well as
the qubit themselves, often the most space is needed for
manipulation and readout systems. For example, moving from hundreds
to thousands of qubits can lead to unfeasible requirements of
microwave cabling, interconnects, lasers and more. As a result,
many players are now also developing more optimized approaches for
scalable manipulation and control. SEEQC have created a digital,
on-chip alternative to analogue control for superconducting qubits
which is now of growing interest to other modalities in the
eco-system. Similarly, Oxford Ionics have recently patented an
'electronic qubit control', an on-chip interface for trapped-ion
modalities. In fact, it is the almost ubiquitous focus of research
in start-ups and established players to overcome 'the wiring
challenge'. Looking ahead, remaining agile across the quantum stack
offers will offer an advantage over vertical integration in this
regard.
Societal and Market Outlook
In this increasingly competitive industry, the coming years will
illuminate which strategies hold the greatest promise for securing
a lasting quantum commercial advantage. This task will be an uphill
balancing act between reducing errors and scaling up
logical qubit numbers while also optimizing for resource
efficiency. This is without even considering gate-speed, algorithm
development, and many other crucial factors. The enormity of the
task will likely see many players fail to survive until the end of
the decade. Yet, with market consolidation and convergence of
talent, increased clarity should come as to where and when quantum
advantage could be offered first, serving only to increase end-user
confidence and engagement. Despite the headwinds, the
world-changing potential of quantum computers within finance,
healthcare, sustainability, and security will remain a tantalizing
enough carrot for not only individual companies but entire nations
to chase.
With so many competing quantum computing technologies across a
fragmented landscape, determining which approaches are likely to
dominate is essential in identifying opportunities within this
exciting industry. IDTechEx's report, "Quantum Computing
Market 2024-2044: Technology, Trends, Players, Forecasts", covers
the hardware that promises a revolutionary approach to solving the
world's unmet challenges. Drawing on extensive primary and
secondary research, including interviews with companies and
attendance at multiple conferences, this report provides an
in-depth evaluation of the competing quantum computing
technologies: superconducting, silicon-spin, photonic, trapped-ion,
neutral-atom, topological, diamond-defect and annealing.
About IDTechEx:
IDTechEx provides trusted independent research on emerging
technologies and their markets. Since 1999, we have been
helping our clients to understand new technologies, their supply
chains, market requirements, opportunities and forecasts. For more
information, contact research@IDTechEx.com or
visit www.IDTechEx.com.
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